The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market in November 2024 continued to see sales activity well above the same period last year, driven by lower mortgage rates that have spurred activity. Since June, there have been four consecutive interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, taking the key interest rate from 5 per cent to 3.75%. And now on December 11th, the Bank of Canada dropped another half-point to 3.25%. This is great news for the real estate market going into 2025!
After a 44% year-over-year jump in the GTA home sales in October, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) revealed another month of encouraging activity in November with a 40.1% annual increase in sales. TRREB reported 5,875 home sales in November 2024 compared to 4,194 sales reported in November 2023. These two months of promising sales activity represent a break in the holding pattern that has existed for months now.
“As we approach the end of 2024, I am pleased to report an improvement in housing market conditions. Many home buyers patiently waited on the sidelines for reduced inflation and lower borrowing costs. With selling prices remaining well off their historic peak and monthly mortgage payments trending lower, the stage is set for an accelerating market recovery in 2025,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Jennifer Pearce.
Among the nearly 6,000 homes sold in November, single-detached homes accounted for the largest share, with 2,669 transactions. This was followed by 1,640 condominium sales, 1,009 townhouses, and 502 semi-detached homes.
New listings were also up compared to November 2023, but by a much lesser annual rate causing the market to tighten. In total there were 11,592 new listings, up by 6.6% year-over-year. Active listings in November 2024 are now at 21,818, down 10.9% monthly while still up 30.2% yearly.
As a result, price decline slowed with the Home Price Index Composite benchmark decreasing by 1.2% year-over year. For comparison, the benchmark price came down by a more substantial 3.3% in October and 4.6% in September.
This means prices are not yet on the incline but decline in prices is slowing. Still, the average selling price was up by 2.6% compared to November 2023 to $1,106,050. It’s the second month that Toronto’s housing market has seen an annual gain in its average home price since April 2024.
TRREB attributes the discrepancy between the benchmark price and average price in November to a greater weighting of detached home sales compared to last year, which are lower in inventory. Prices increased in the GTA for detached, semi-detached and townhomes by 3.9 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.
The rise in prices were much greater in the City of Toronto. Detached homes rose 5.9% to an average of $1,695,939, semi-detached rose 2.8% to $1,248,930, townhomes rose 6.1% to 904,335 and condos only 0.3% to $713,364.
“Market conditions have tightened, particularly for single-family homes. The detached market segment experienced average annual price growth above the rate of inflation, particularly in the City of Toronto. In contrast, the condominium apartment segment continued to experience lower average selling prices compared to a year ago. Condo buyers are benefitting from a lot of choice and therefore negotiating power. This will attract renter households into homeownership as borrowing costs trend lower in the months ahead,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
The much larger rise in home sales relative to new listings meant that November 2024’s sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) jumped to 51%, higher than October 2024’s SNLR of 43%, pushing it further into balanced market territory. This can be seen in the fact that new listings decreased by 24% monthly, compared to sales decreasing by 11.8% monthly. The City of Toronto’s SNLR for November 2024 was similar, also at 51%.
The average property’s days on the market rose to 49 in November 2024, up from 31 in November 2023. This month, the average sales price to listing price ratio was 99%, meaning that homes sold for less than their asking price on average.
As we look ahead to 2025, the recent Bank of Canada rate cuts—including the two substantial 0.50% reductions in October and just now in December—bring a renewed sense of optimism to Toronto’s real estate market. These lower borrowing costs have already begun to bolster buyer confidence, with sales activity increasing over the past two months.
This transitional period presents a unique opportunity for buyers to act before heightened competition potentially drives prices upward. While housing activity may remain subdued through the end of the year, we anticipate a notable resurgence in early 2025, potentially signaling an early start to the spring market. This shift could see the balance of the market move from favoring buyers to favoring sellers, making it an opportune moment to evaluate real estate opportunities.
